Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172020 200915 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     35.10     63.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     56.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.8  42.0  56.6  59.9  71.5  72.6  43.2  25.8  U VU VU VU VU VU VU  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0  22.0  14.0  16.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         62.9  65.1  62.9  65.1  -9.2 -19.2 -29.5 -36.6  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    89.0 134.0 139.0 130.0  22.0  14.0  -8.0 -18.0  F VF VF  F  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   41.0  40.0  39.0  38.0  33.0  26.0  30.0  35.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   0.0 -26.0 -26.0 -75.0 -39.0 -25.0  -7.0  N  N VF VF VF VF VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.0%        2.0%        4.5%
 25kt / 24h        1.2%        1.7%        1.5%
 30kt / 24h        1.0%        0.6%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        0.6%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        0.5%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%