Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172020 200915 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.30     61.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     60.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        42.9  55.9  59.8  61.0  79.3  62.5  24.5  25.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  15.0  18.0  31.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         65.1  62.9  62.9  29.6 -14.6 -24.9 -30.3 -29.1  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   137.0 127.0 131.0  52.0  49.0  20.0   0.0 -43.0 VF  F  F  N  N  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   40.0  38.0  37.0  35.0  28.0  28.0  30.0  33.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0 -19.0 -29.0 -28.0 -45.0 -42.0 -16.0 -11.0  N VF VF VF VF VF VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        0.4%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%