Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172020 200915 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     37.70     59.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     75.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    141.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        57.5  61.5  64.5  73.7  72.7  43.6  23.1  26.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  20.0  21.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         60.7  62.9  22.2 -16.6 -19.2 -27.3 -31.9 -21.6  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   139.0 123.0  38.0  13.0  26.0  -2.0 -10.0 -19.0 VF  F  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   39.0  37.0  35.0  32.0  26.0  29.0  31.0  32.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -21.0 -37.0 -37.0 -65.0 -42.0 -21.0  -8.0  -5.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        0.2%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons