Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172020 200915 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     38.80     56.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        57.3  62.4  69.2  73.5  62.1  27.8  26.6  31.1 VU VU VU VU VU  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         70.1  20.4  -9.6  -7.4 -21.8 -28.7 -21.8 -10.9  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   112.0  52.0  13.0  55.0   8.0  -4.0 -62.0 -26.0  F  N  U  N  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   38.0  35.0  33.0  29.0  31.0  33.0  37.0  33.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -35.0 -39.0 -72.0 -69.0 -34.0 -17.0  -8.0 -18.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons