Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172020 200916 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     40.00     54.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        62.8  72.8  73.5  67.5  48.5  28.3  32.6  37.0 VU VU VU VU VU  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         24.4 -10.3  -7.4 -18.3 -26.9 -23.2  -8.1   2.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    43.0  15.0  43.0   5.0 -12.0 -15.0 -34.0-100.0  N  U  N  U  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   34.0  31.0  28.0  28.0  31.0  33.0  32.0  28.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -47.0 -65.0 -70.0 -39.0 -21.0 -17.0 -12.0 -17.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons