Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172020 200916 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     41.20     50.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    133.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        68.5  75.5  70.8  64.6  33.3  28.9  36.0  35.0 VU VU VU VU  U  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         -8.1  -5.8 -13.6 -19.3 -24.9 -14.8  -1.7   8.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    21.0  50.0  10.0  -5.0  -1.0 -59.0 -46.0 -42.0  U  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   30.0  27.0  26.0  29.0  32.0  33.0  28.0  26.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -39.0 -61.0 -37.0 -29.0 -26.0 -18.0 -21.0 -15.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons