Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172020 200916 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     42.60     46.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    134.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        76.3  71.3  67.5  48.7  27.3  31.7  35.1  32.9 VU VU VU VU  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]          4.2  -6.0  -8.8 -14.5 -11.8   2.6  15.7  31.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0  11.0  19.0   7.0 -18.0 -43.0 -90.0 -68.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   26.0  26.0  28.0  33.0  33.0  30.0  26.0  25.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -49.0 -55.0 -36.0 -19.0 -15.0 -16.0 -18.0 -10.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons