Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172020 200918 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     42.80     31.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.3  34.9  28.9  23.2  13.2  17.1  18.9  26.7  U  U  N  N  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         40.0  45.9  52.7  59.3  66.7  70.8  70.8  70.8  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -38.0 -58.0 -48.0 -61.0 -18.0 -23.0  -9.0  -6.0 VU VU VU VU  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   28.0  27.0  27.0  29.0  33.0  34.0  32.0  31.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -20.0 -22.0 -15.0 -14.0  -7.0  -8.0  -4.0  -1.0 VF VF VF VF  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons