Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172020 200919 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     37.80     31.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.0  21.7  14.9  12.8  23.5  37.8  34.2  49.0  N  N  F  F  N  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         64.2  70.8  72.2  72.2  69.4  64.2  58.2  57.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -42.0 -34.0  -2.0  -7.0   9.0 -19.0 -30.0 -52.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   29.0  33.0  36.0  40.0  40.0  41.0  40.0  38.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -13.0  -6.0  -3.0  -6.0 -12.0  -7.0 -10.0  -8.0 VF  F  N  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons