Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172020 200919 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     35.90     29.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.4  18.5  19.3  25.3  37.3  42.2  44.1  42.2  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         74.4  75.8  74.4  74.4  70.4  65.5  60.9  55.7  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -6.0  -5.0 -10.0 -14.0 -25.0 -16.0 -54.0  17.0  U  U  U  U VU  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   33.0  37.0  38.0  39.0  40.0  39.0  39.0  49.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -8.0 -10.0 -16.0  -9.0 -10.0 -13.0 -13.0  F  F  F VF  F  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons