Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172020 200920 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     35.60     29.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.1  17.0  21.5  29.8  39.4  38.9  46.4  33.9  F  F  N  N  U  U VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         73.0  73.0  74.4  74.4  70.4  64.3  56.7  48.3  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -3.0 -22.0   6.0  18.0 -11.0  -4.0 -77.0  46.0  U VU  U  U  U  U VU  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   34.0  34.0  36.0  36.0  39.0  41.0  44.0  54.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -9.0 -14.0 -14.0 -11.0  -9.0 -12.0 -29.0  F  F VF VF  F  F  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons