Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172020 200920 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     35.30     29.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.7  22.4  28.2  32.3  40.7  35.6  28.5  33.8  F  N  N  U VU  U  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         75.8  74.4  75.8  75.8  73.0  63.2  53.7  46.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    14.0  37.0  -9.0 -30.0  33.0   0.0  17.0 -14.0  U  N  U VU  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   32.0  33.0  36.0  38.0  42.0  47.0  59.0  64.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 -16.0 -13.0 -12.0 -17.0 -23.0 -12.0 -14.0  F VF VF  F VF VF  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons