Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172020 200920 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.90     29.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.9  25.6  32.6  37.1  35.1  33.5  26.3  49.3  N  N  U  U  U  U  N VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         78.6  77.2  77.2  75.8  69.2  58.8  48.3  29.6  N  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    36.0 -24.0 -28.0  -7.0  29.0  28.0  37.0  25.0  N VU VU  U  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   34.0  37.0  40.0  42.0  46.0  53.0  66.0  64.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0 -12.0 -13.0 -19.0 -20.0 -12.0 -27.0 -12.0  F  F VF VF VF  F VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons