Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172020 200921 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.20     31.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.8  13.6  16.4  16.2  24.6  36.6  22.4  33.8  N  F  F  F  N  U  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         89.3  91.0  87.7  84.6  73.0  63.2  55.7  50.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -44.0 -33.0 -21.0  27.0 -12.0  26.0  83.0 -37.0 VU VU VU  U  U  U  N VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   32.0  33.0  36.0  39.0  42.0  47.0  60.0  63.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -9.0 -12.0 -16.0 -30.0  -4.0   8.0   8.0  F  F  F VF VF  F  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons