Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172020 200921 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.30     31.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.6  16.6  20.8  18.9  27.6  19.8  34.1  30.3  F  F  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         89.3  86.1  81.5  75.8  67.9  60.9  51.8  45.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -30.0 -18.0  35.0  30.0  27.0  19.0  96.0  20.0 VU  U  N  N  U  U  F  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   37.0  40.0  43.0  46.0  51.0  62.0  64.0  57.0 VU VU VU VU  U  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -13.0 -15.0 -17.0 -32.0   2.0 -35.0 -12.0 -27.0 VF VF VF VF  N VF  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons