Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172020 200921 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.30     27.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.5  27.7  33.5  33.2  22.5  46.3  73.6  80.9  N  N  U  U  N VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         78.6  74.4  70.4  65.5  53.7  38.4  44.2  78.6  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    26.0  14.0 -24.0  33.0  56.0  13.0  54.0 -41.0  U  U VU  N  N  U  N VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  49.0  51.0  52.0  61.0  58.0  57.0  68.0 VU  U  U  U  N  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -13.0 -39.0 -20.0  13.0 -58.0 -29.0   0.0 -56.0 VF VF VF  U VF VF  N VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons