Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172020 200922 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.60     26.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      2.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.4  37.9  35.9  26.9  26.9  26.7  28.0  21.3  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         60.8  58.0  54.2  51.7  45.9  44.8  44.8  47.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     6.0 -33.0  43.0  68.0  50.0 -16.0   0.0 -30.0  U VU  N  N  N  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  45.0  47.0  54.0  54.0  49.0  48.0  41.0 VU VU VU  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -33.0  -8.0   6.0  -9.0 -20.0  -7.0  -4.0   8.0 VF  F  N  F VF  F  F  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.4%        0.3%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons