Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172020 200922 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.60     24.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.4  35.9  28.8  22.7  34.3  18.7  21.6  25.7  U  U  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         56.7  54.2  51.7  48.2  42.7  41.7  40.7  42.7  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -32.0  42.0  58.0  46.0  10.0  15.0 -63.0 -57.0 VU  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  48.0  54.0  54.0  51.0  49.0  44.0  38.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0   5.0 -18.0 -21.0 -17.0  -6.0  -6.0   4.0  F  N VF VF VF  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons