Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172020 200922 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.90     23.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.2  28.5  22.1  30.3  31.7  23.2  22.1  31.5  U  N  N  N  U  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         59.2  55.5  53.2  49.8  45.7  46.7  48.8  50.9  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    47.0  52.0  41.0  19.0 -45.0 -32.0 -24.0 -23.0  N  N  N  U VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  53.0  55.0  52.0  50.0  46.0  40.0  41.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0 -19.0 -24.0  -9.0  -7.0  -2.0   6.0  22.0  N VF VF  F  F  N  N VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons