Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172020 200922 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.70     21.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.2  22.4  25.2  33.2  26.5  23.3  23.8  19.8  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         66.7  64.3  62.0  58.8  56.7  55.7  58.8  67.9  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    41.0   2.0 -17.0 -10.0 -60.0   0.0 -20.0  -8.0  N  U  U  U VU  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  54.0  53.0  53.0  52.0  48.0  47.0  48.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -17.0 -17.0  -3.0  -6.0   0.0   2.0  21.0  51.0 VF VF  N  F  N  N VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons