Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172020 200923 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     35.40     18.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    132.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.5  33.7  37.2  40.4  49.4  50.5  57.2  55.1  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   9.0  11.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         56.7  53.7  50.0  47.4  32.8  89.3 120.1 129.3  U  U  U  U VU  N  N  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     9.0 -51.0 -51.0 -54.0   0.0  13.0  23.0  32.0  U VU VU VU  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  52.0  51.0  49.0  41.0  36.0  33.0  32.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -1.0 -13.0 -29.0 -84.0 -50.0-203.0-141.0  F  N VF VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons