Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172020 200923 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.20     17.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.7  38.9  42.2  50.0  54.2  61.3  63.8  63.8  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         43.7  40.0  38.3  27.7  49.8  95.5 120.0 120.0  U  U  U VU  U  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -37.0 -24.0 -58.0 -20.0  13.0  15.0  31.0  31.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  47.0  47.0  46.0  40.0  35.0  37.0  37.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0 -20.0 -29.0 -57.0 -92.0-143.0-105.0-105.0  F VF VF VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons