Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182020 200907 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.10     19.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     48.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.6  12.9   9.6  14.2  17.2  16.4  17.6  16.1  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0   7.0   6.0   7.0  11.0  14.0   7.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        127.3 120.7 116.5 108.5  99.4  94.3  94.3  94.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0  46.0  28.0  -8.0  -2.0  -6.0   0.0 -10.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  72.0  71.0  71.0  71.0  68.0  64.0  66.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   4.0   5.0   8.0  10.0   5.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.3%        3.6%        2.5%
 25kt / 24h        4.4%       20.2%       12.3%
 30kt / 24h        1.8%        8.7%        5.3%
 35kt / 24h        1.2%        8.7%        5.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        8.0%        4.2%
 45kt / 36h        2.2%       26.7%       14.5%
 55kt / 36h        2.1%       13.5%        7.8%
 55kt / 48h        5.3%        4.6%        4.9%
 70kt / 48h        4.6%        7.8%        6.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.7%        7.8%        4.2%