Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182020 200907 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.50     20.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.7   9.7  13.7  15.8  13.3  15.4  18.7  16.4  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   9.0   9.0  10.0  12.0  14.0   5.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.7 116.5 112.4 108.5  99.4  94.3  92.7  94.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    40.0  19.0  -1.0   0.0  14.0 -31.0  28.0  -9.0  N  U  U  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  72.0  71.0  69.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   3.0   7.0   9.0   3.0   4.0   2.0   1.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        2.6%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        1.8%       12.0%        6.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        4.2%        2.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        4.2%        2.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        4.1%        2.2%
 45kt / 36h        1.8%       19.9%       10.8%
 55kt / 36h        1.8%        9.1%        5.5%
 55kt / 48h        5.3%        5.3%        5.3%
 70kt / 48h        5.3%        6.0%        5.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.7%        6.1%        3.4%