Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182020 200907 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90     21.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.8  12.0  15.1  14.8  17.0  15.5  13.8  13.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   9.0   8.0   9.0  12.0   6.0   6.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        109.4 103.5  99.8  96.2  87.7  87.7  87.7  91.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    36.0  -4.0  20.0  10.0   8.0   5.0   0.0  17.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  70.0  69.0  68.0  66.0  63.0  65.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   5.0   6.0   1.0   2.0   0.0   5.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        2.4%        1.7%
 25kt / 24h        1.4%        9.0%        5.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        3.2%        2.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        3.2%        1.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        2.9%        1.5%
 45kt / 36h        1.1%       13.9%        7.5%
 55kt / 36h        1.1%        6.3%        3.7%
 55kt / 48h        4.9%        4.9%        4.9%
 70kt / 48h        4.9%        4.0%        4.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.7%        4.8%        2.8%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons