Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182020 200908 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.10     22.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     21.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.5  15.3  13.8  12.5  17.2  17.1  10.0  15.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   8.0  10.0  10.0  11.0   4.0   7.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.5 101.6  98.0  92.7  86.1  87.7  87.7  91.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0  27.0  25.0  21.0  -9.0 -16.0  -9.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  69.0  68.0  67.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   6.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   3.0   2.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        1.5%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        5.9%        3.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        2.0%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.8%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        1.8%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.9%        9.2%        5.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.9%        3.8%        2.3%
 55kt / 48h        4.8%        4.8%        4.8%
 70kt / 48h        4.8%        2.6%        3.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.4%        3.5%        2.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons