Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182020 200908 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.30     24.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.0  13.6  12.1  16.6  14.4  12.9  12.2  22.8  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0  10.0  10.0  13.0   6.0   6.0   9.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        101.6  98.0  92.7  89.3  87.7  86.1  87.7  92.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     5.0  -1.0  21.0  10.0   8.0  11.0   0.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  67.0  66.0  67.0  63.0  68.0  65.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   1.0   2.0   2.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        2.6%        1.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        4.5%        2.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.5%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        2.8%        2.8%        2.8%
 70kt / 48h        2.8%        1.3%        2.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        2.1%        1.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons