Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182020 200908 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40     25.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     77.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.1  13.2  18.2  18.5  19.3  10.9  15.5  23.9  F  F  F  N  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  11.0  12.0  12.0   2.0   6.0   7.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         98.0  94.4  89.3  87.7  87.7  86.1  89.3  94.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -10.0   0.0  10.0 -24.0  27.0   4.0  -7.0   9.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  69.0  68.0  68.0  70.0  69.0  67.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0   2.0   1.0   6.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        2.1%        1.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        4.0%        2.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.4%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        2.3%        2.3%        2.3%
 70kt / 48h        2.3%        1.4%        1.8%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.8%        0.9%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons