Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182020 200908 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.70     27.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.4  19.2  19.7  17.6  17.7  11.0  21.9  33.3  F  N  N  F  F  F  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  11.0  11.0   2.0   5.0   7.0   2.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         92.7  89.3  87.7  86.1  86.1  87.7  91.0  98.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     1.0  13.0 -17.0  13.0   7.0  -1.0 -33.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  66.0  64.0  66.0  70.0  68.0  68.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   1.0   0.0  12.0  20.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        2.3%        1.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        2.0%        2.0%        2.0%
 70kt / 48h        2.0%        0.9%        1.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons