Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182020 200909 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.80     28.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.2  20.4  19.5  22.5  12.4  16.5  30.1  37.4  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  11.0   2.0   2.0   6.0   6.0   0.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         94.3  91.1  91.1  91.1  91.1  94.3  99.4 104.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     9.0  -2.0  22.0  22.0 -14.0   0.0 -17.0  29.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  66.0  68.0  68.0  70.0  69.0  64.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   9.0  16.0  23.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.5%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.9%        0.9%        0.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.9%        0.5%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons