Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182020 200909 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.20     29.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     72.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     59.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     77.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.0  19.8  22.2  17.1  11.1  19.6  32.5  46.5  F  N  N  F  F  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   1.0   1.0   5.0   7.0   2.0   0.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         91.1  91.1  91.1  91.1  92.7  97.7 103.0 112.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -20.0 -10.0   3.0 -20.0   3.0 -19.0   5.0   0.0 VU  U  U VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  65.0  65.0  66.0  67.0  65.0  62.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   9.0  20.0  18.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.1%        1.8%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        7.0%        3.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.0%        1.5%
 55kt / 48h        1.4%        1.4%        1.4%
 70kt / 48h        1.4%        2.2%        1.8%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons