Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182020 200909 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.50     31.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     55.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.7  26.8  20.8  13.6  11.9  19.9  27.8  42.4  N  N  N  F  F  N  N VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   2.0   2.0   1.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         86.1  86.1  86.1  86.1  87.7  92.7  98.0 107.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -2.0   0.0   0.0   2.0  15.0 -17.0  -7.0  -1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  65.0  66.0  67.0  65.0  62.0  61.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   1.0   1.0  -2.0   6.0  12.0  18.0  19.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        2.2%        1.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        7.4%        3.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        3.2%        1.6%
 55kt / 48h        1.7%        1.7%        1.7%
 70kt / 48h        1.7%        2.1%        1.9%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons