Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182020 200909 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.90     32.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.8  18.2  14.6  14.5  10.4  17.4  28.6  36.1  N  F  F  F  F  F  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   4.0   1.0   2.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         86.1  86.1  86.1  86.1  89.3  96.2  99.8 105.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    20.0   5.0   4.0  18.0   8.0 -10.0 -10.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  65.0  67.0  65.0  66.0  59.0  62.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   6.0   6.0   5.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.5%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        4.9%        2.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.9%        1.0%
 55kt / 48h        2.6%        2.6%        2.6%
 70kt / 48h        2.6%        1.5%        2.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.1%        0.6%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons