Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182020 200910 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.90     33.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.2  14.6  15.1  13.5  11.1  15.0  25.9  31.9  N  F  F  F  F  F  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   1.0   1.0   2.0   3.0   1.0   1.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         87.7  87.7  87.7  89.3  92.7  98.0 103.5 105.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    20.0  13.0  21.0  26.0 -18.0   0.0 -13.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  66.0  67.0  65.0  60.0  56.0  55.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   6.0   5.0  -1.0  16.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.8%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        5.4%        2.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        2.0%        1.0%
 55kt / 48h        2.5%        2.5%        2.5%
 70kt / 48h        2.5%        1.8%        2.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.7%        0.9%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons