Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182020 200910 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.10     34.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     55.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     50.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.0  16.6  15.9  10.5   8.4  18.1  23.5  36.5  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   1.0   2.0   5.0   4.0   0.0   4.0  19.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         87.7  87.7  89.3  91.0  98.0 101.6 103.5 107.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    19.0  34.0  25.0   3.0   0.0  -9.0  -1.0 -10.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  67.0  65.0  64.0  59.0  57.0  56.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0   3.0   2.0   0.0   3.0   2.0  16.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        2.8%        1.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        8.9%        4.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        3.7%        2.0%
 55kt / 48h        3.4%        3.4%        3.4%
 70kt / 48h        3.4%        3.0%        3.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        2.5%        1.3%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons