Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182020 200910 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.50     35.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     39.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.0  15.9  11.6   9.1   9.3  21.3  27.2  41.2  F  F  F  F  F  N  N VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   2.0   5.0   4.0   2.0   0.0  16.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         77.7  79.3  81.0  82.7  89.8  93.5  95.5 103.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    35.0  19.0   4.0 -16.0  -4.0   8.0   7.0  -5.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  64.0  64.0  60.0  56.0  55.0  57.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   5.0   2.0   0.0   3.0   0.0  13.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.3%        2.1%        2.2%
 25kt / 24h        1.7%        7.4%        4.5%
 30kt / 24h        1.1%        3.1%        2.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        3.1%        2.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        2.3%        1.6%
 45kt / 36h        2.6%       18.0%       10.3%
 55kt / 36h        2.6%        9.9%        6.3%
 55kt / 48h        4.8%        4.8%        4.8%
 70kt / 48h        4.8%        4.9%        4.9%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        2.3%        1.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons