Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182020 200910 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.80     36.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     67.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.1  11.2   8.8   9.3  16.2  19.4  28.5  38.3  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   8.0   1.0   4.0   2.0  13.0  17.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         79.3  81.0  84.4  88.0  91.6  95.5  99.4 112.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    21.0  -5.0 -27.0  -3.0  -5.0  -1.0 -13.0  10.0  U  U VU  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  62.0  59.0  57.0  53.0  51.0  53.0  59.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0   2.0  -1.0  10.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.1%        1.9%        2.0%
 25kt / 24h        1.4%        6.8%        4.1%
 30kt / 24h        1.1%        2.7%        1.9%
 35kt / 24h        1.1%        2.5%        1.8%
 40kt / 24h        1.1%        2.3%        1.7%
 45kt / 36h        2.1%       13.7%        7.9%
 55kt / 36h        2.1%        6.5%        4.3%
 55kt / 48h        4.4%        4.4%        4.4%
 70kt / 48h        4.4%        3.4%        3.9%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        2.0%        1.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons