Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182020 200911 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.20     37.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     11.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     52.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.6   9.6   8.8   8.7  20.7  26.7  40.9  44.2  F  F  F  F  N  N VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   1.0   2.0   1.0   1.0  16.0  17.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         81.0  82.7  86.2  89.8  93.5  95.5 103.6 119.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     9.0  -5.0 -12.0 -19.0 -13.0   5.0   0.0 -16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  58.0  56.0  53.0  53.0  55.0  57.0  61.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0  -1.0  -1.0   4.0   2.0   8.0  12.0  19.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        2.6%        1.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.1%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        0.8%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        0.8%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        3.6%        1.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        1.2%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        1.2%        1.2%        1.2%
 70kt / 48h        1.2%        0.7%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons