Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182020 200911 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.50     38.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     65.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.1  10.5   9.4  13.5  22.7  35.6  38.7  46.3  F  F  F  F  N  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   6.0  17.0  16.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         87.7  91.2  93.0  94.8  98.5 102.4 115.1 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -22.0 -17.0  -7.0 -17.0   7.0  -5.0  22.0  12.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  54.0  53.0  52.0  52.0  56.0  59.0  61.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   7.0   2.0  -1.0  10.0   8.0  19.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        2.7%        1.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        1.0%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        3.8%        1.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.2%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        0.6%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons