Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182020 200911 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.00     39.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     51.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.5   9.6  14.2  17.7  23.5  40.1  42.5  46.8  F  F  F  F  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  17.0  14.0  15.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         98.0  99.8 101.6 103.5 105.5 120.1 130.0 130.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -4.0  -8.0 -13.0  -7.0 -20.0 -13.0   1.0  -5.0  U  U  U  U VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  51.0  51.0  48.0  51.0  55.0  59.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   7.0   1.0  -1.0   8.0   8.0  10.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        1.5%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.3%        1.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons