Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182020 200911 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.50     40.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     44.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         8.1  13.9  16.7  16.9  31.9  37.3  48.5  39.3 VF  F  F  F  U  U VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   3.0   3.0  13.0  16.0  14.0  14.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         99.8 101.6 103.5 105.5 111.5 127.0 130.0 130.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -1.0  -5.0   4.0   0.0  -2.0  33.0 -36.0 -19.0  U  U  U  U  U  N VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  48.0  48.0  47.0  52.0  56.0  56.0  49.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  10.0   4.0   6.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.1%        1.9%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.4%        1.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons