Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182020 200912 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.10     41.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     54.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.7  14.4  14.5  18.9  33.3  34.8  40.8  30.6  F  F  F  N  U  U VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   7.0  17.0  18.0  13.0  13.0  12.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        103.5 105.5 105.5 107.4 122.3 130.0 130.0 130.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     1.0   8.0  14.0 -19.0  16.0  14.0 -24.0 -42.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  46.0  47.0  49.0  51.0  54.0  53.0  47.0  U VU VU  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0   0.0   4.0   1.0   4.0   0.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.3%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        5.9%        3.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        2.0%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        2.0%        1.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        1.6%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        7.6%        3.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        2.6%        1.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        1.8%        1.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        1.5%        1.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        1.9%        1.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons