Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182020 200912 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.00     42.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     18.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     58.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.1  16.4  21.6  28.6  34.3  44.5  35.4  30.0  F  F  N  N  U VU  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0  17.0  17.0  15.0  13.0  12.0  12.0  19.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        103.5 105.5 107.4 113.6 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0  30.0 -11.0  -3.0  31.0  -6.0 -39.0 -55.0  U  N  U  U  N  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  47.0  49.0  50.0  53.0  52.0  49.0  46.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   7.0   6.0   2.0   3.0  -1.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        2.7%        1.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        3.5%        1.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons