Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182020 200912 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.80     44.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     55.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.6  23.3  30.9  35.4  37.1  43.1  32.9  26.5  F  N  U  U  U VU  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  16.0  15.0  14.0  13.0  12.0  15.0  34.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.5 107.4 113.6 122.3 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    28.0 -11.0 -11.0   0.0  11.0 -15.0 -65.0 -62.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  49.0  49.0  50.0  52.0  51.0  45.0  41.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   8.0   6.0   4.0   4.0   0.0  -4.0  -5.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.7%        0.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%