Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182020 200912 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.90     45.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      7.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     66.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.0  30.7  32.2  32.8  40.0  34.7  28.9  14.9  N  U  U  U  U  U  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  14.0  14.0  13.0  12.0  15.0  28.0  32.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        114.4 122.9 129.6 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -13.0 -11.0   0.0  22.0 -14.0 -17.0 -36.0 -58.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  49.0  50.0  52.0  51.0  47.0  43.0  39.0 VU  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   6.0   4.0   4.0   2.0  -1.0  -4.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        1.3%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.3%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        1.0%        0.6%