Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182020 200913 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.00     46.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     65.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.9  32.8  32.9  38.0  42.0  32.2  25.9  12.4  U  U  U  U VU  U  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  14.0  13.0  11.0  13.0  20.0  41.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]        125.1 134.3 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -10.0  -2.0  19.0  17.0  -9.0 -42.0 -81.0 -52.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  51.0  52.0  52.0  50.0  44.0  40.0  38.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   3.0   5.0   5.0  -1.0  -3.0  -6.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        1.5%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.3%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%