Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182020 200913 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.90     46.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     11.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     62.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.1  31.0  36.6  42.7  38.0  28.9  18.6  18.6  U  U  U VU  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  12.0  12.0  12.0  16.0  33.0  30.0  30.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        139.3 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     1.0   7.0  -7.0 -26.0 -19.0 -40.0 -30.0 -30.0  U  U  U VU  U VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  51.0  49.0  50.0  46.0  42.0  37.0  37.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   5.0   4.0   2.0   0.0  -3.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.5%        1.5%        1.0%