Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182020 200913 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.60     47.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      3.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.4  36.7  41.4  43.2  32.0  23.9  13.0  13.0  U  U VU VU  U  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  17.0  17.0  17.0  25.0  35.0  22.0  22.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0 -16.0 -19.0   0.0 -22.0 -68.0 -46.0 -46.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  48.0  48.0  48.0  41.0  37.0  35.0  35.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   3.0   1.0   0.0  -4.0  -7.0  -4.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.3%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        1.1%        2.6%        1.9%