Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182020 200913 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.20     47.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      5.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.2  40.6  42.8  38.9  28.1  17.4  14.4  14.4  U  U VU  U  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  16.0  17.0  18.0  29.0  35.0  20.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -4.0 -15.0  -3.0 -47.0 -39.0 -77.0 -44.0 -44.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  47.0  48.0  45.0  40.0  36.0  35.0  35.0  U VU  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  -5.0  -1.0 -10.0 -10.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.5%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        1.3%        3.2%        2.3%