Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182020 200914 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.20     47.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     14.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.9  41.1  37.5  30.7  25.7  14.7  15.1  15.1  U VU  U  U  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  18.0  20.0  25.0  33.0  21.0  21.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 139.3 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -21.0 -18.0 -41.0 -37.0 -66.0 -79.0 -10.0 -10.0 VU  U VU VU VU VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  46.0  45.0  41.0  37.0  35.0  33.0  33.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   0.0  -5.0  -7.0  -8.0  -7.0  -7.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        2.2%        1.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        2.2%        4.4%        3.3%